Your post is a fount of mis-information. Allow me to comment
On Mon, 28 Jun 2004 03:31:31 -0400, ToeJam <toejam99@bellsouth.com>
wrote:
>I watched a TV show a while ago, MIT's attempts to "break Vegas" with
>card counting at blackjack, and their mishaps.
>I personally found it pretty funny, especially Mr "M"'s (the
>"Mastermind" of the operation) idiosyncratic ways, but mathematically
>sound, nonetheless. This gave me a few ideas.
>
>I don't have a PhD in Mathematics, like those eggheads at MIT, but I'm
>reasonably intelligent, and I can write code.
>
>I've won 925 USD this first month with my new program. I expect to do
>better next month, now that I've lost the fear inherent to playing
>online.
>
>The normal disadvantage to the blackjack player, assuming he/she plays
>correctly each and every time, is approximately -5.25% for each hand
>played, (thanks, to John Scarne, for that accurate and concise
>calculation) or so say the odds. But these "odds" don't include
>knowledge of the state of the deck.
Using correct basic strategy, as published first by Ed Thorpe ("Beat
the Dealer") and later by Winston Wong (a pseudonym), the house
advantage for blackjack is between 1 and 2%, perhaps less for single
deck. Scarne is no expert at blackjack.
Basic strategy does not involve counting and varying your bet size,
but does specify when you hit, hold, split, or double (and surrendur
if available) based on your cards and the dealer's up card.
>What if we dig a little deeper...
>
>Counting cards to get the running count, true count, etc is easy
>enough to do, and that's just one powerful advantage, my program does
>that to calculate the best next bet, but what about the correct play
>as the hands are dealt?
Counting may work at land casinos, although not very well any more.
Most casinos use multiple decks and shuffle frequently, sometimes with
machines so they can shuffle more frequently without slowing down the
game.
But the "virtual" decks used in online casinos are shuffled for each
hand. So counting is useless.
The best way to beat the online casinos is by "bonus hunting." Online
casinos commonly give you free money to get you to go to the trouble
of downloading their software and/or making a deposit for the first
time. A few will even give you ongoing bonuses.
You typically can't cash out the bonus until you play some minimum
number of hands. Some bonuses are good deals and many are not. It
takes judgement to decide which are good.
Back in the day, when bonus requirements were easier than now, I made
over $40,000 this way. Now it's harder, but I can still make money.
But it's really a hobby, because the return for the time involved is
fairly poor. You could probably make more working at McDonalds.
You have to keep your bet sizes small to avoid "gambler's ruin", which
happens when you lose your bonus, even though the percentages say you
shouldn't, because of a "run" of bad luck, which often happens.
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