Thank you for the quick math. Of course I would prefer a single/double deck
blackjack because I am good at counting cards with one or two decks with a
simple +/- system which has worked out well for me. However the odds are
not terrible and considering it is the only game in town....
Thanks,
FF
"Meeexs" <meeexs@yahoo.com> wrote in message
news:f70bac06.0308131120.10e408ad@posting.google.com...
>
> Ok. I can't give you a precise expectation for the game, but I think I
> can get a good estimate. Actually, I am surprised by the results and
> maybe a more precise analysis is in order. I am sorry I really don't
> have time to do that. Also, please check my work to see if I made any
> mistakes. I am assuming 4 decks, No hole, early surrender, H17, RS4,
> DA2 (DOA) for this game (numbers below are in percent- so .54 means
> .54 percent of 1 unit).
>
> www.blackjackinfo.com has this game starting with an EV of +.07
> percent (player favorable).
>
> Base EV: +.07 (for S17 it's .14)
> No Natural Blackjack: -2.675
> 3 of a kind bonus: +1.95
> Straight Flush bonus: +.54
> ------------------
> Total EV: -.115
>
> Below I have details about how I got the 3 numbers for the special
> rules. I am surprised because this is a very good game to play. I
> wonder if I have made some assumptions that I shouldn't have.
>
> You should use the BS chart from www.blackjackinfo.com when playing
> this game. Put in all the rules I stated above and they will generate
> a chart for you.
>
> I don't think there will be many strategy deviations for the 3 of a
> kind bonus. This is only because there are not many marginal pair
> hands where you normally stand but would be ok hitting or splitting.
> One possibility is splitting 9s against a dealer 7, in this game you
> might want to split instead of stand.
>
> The straight flush bonus also won't have many strategy deviations. If
> you have a suited 6,7 against a dealer 2, I think you would want to
> hit instead of stand. The same might apply to a suited 8,9 against a
> dealer ace. These are both very marginal plays where the chance at the
> bonus is worth the deviation.
>
> If you are a card counter, then a whole lot more work needs to be
> done. The lack of a 3/2 BJ has a huge effect, and I'm not really sure
> if card counting would be successful with that rule. If so, the
> bonuses will change many of the index numbers for pairs and straight
> flush draws.
>
> Hope this helped and that I didn't make any major mistakes.
> Good luck and have fun!
>
> -M
>
>
>
> No Natural Blackjack:
> --------------------
> Uncontested Player BJs happen roughly 4.55% of the time in a 4 deck
> game. You lose 1/2 of a unit every time this happens, so you have a
> disadvantage of 2.275%. But another factor is that you also lose the
> fact that you win against a dealer 21. I think the dealer gets 21
> about 9% of the time (not sure if this includes BJs or not) so 9% of
> the time that you have BJ you are also pushing instead of winning.
> This costs you another .4% so the total EV effect is -2.675%.
>
> 3 of a kind bonus:
> -----------------
> The probability of getting 3 of a kind in first 3 cards dealt is the
> chances that the 2nd and third card are the same as the first one
> which is: 15/207*14/206 = .0049 Now you also get a second chance if
> you split the pair. With multiple deck basic strategy, you split
> roughly half the time. Then the other half of the time, there are a
> lot of hands that you won't hit (like 10s,Js,Qs,Ks and other pairs
> against certain dealer up cards). On these hands you will never even
> get a 3rd card, so they reduce the chances of getting the bonus. This
> happens about 1/3 of the time. So we have:
> .49 * 1/2 * 2 (half the time you get 2 tries because you split)
> +
> .49.* 1/2 * 2/3 (the other half the time, only 2/3 of hands get
> another card)
> ---------
> .0065
>
> It's worth 3 units every time it happens, so the EV addition is .0065
> * 3 = .0195 or 1.95 percent.
>
>
> Straight Flush bonus:
> --------------------
> First, I will just determine the chances of getting a straight flush
> on any first 3 cards out of 4 decks. The Aces and 2/K act differently
> from the rest because I assume you can't have a straight go "around
> the horn" and I also assume that Ace can be high or low.
>
> For example, starting with an Ace (which will be 1/13 of the time) you
> then have 16 cards that could continue a straight flush (the 2,3,K,Q
> of the same suit). After drawing any one of those, there are now only
> 4 possible cards left that can finish the flush (2 if you drew the 3
> and so on).
>
> Ace: 1/13 * 16/207 * 4/206 = .000115
> 2/K: 2/13 * (4/207 * 4/206 + 4/207 * 8/206) = .000173
> Rest: 10/13 * (8/207 * 8/206 + 8/207 * 4/206) = .00173
> --------------
> Total: 0.002018
>
> But there are a number of starting hands where you would stand and not
> get a 3rd card, such as all hard 17 - 20. I estimate that these make
> up about 1/3 of the total hands, so we will multiply our probability
> of getting the straight flush by 2/3 for a final total of .00135. To
> be simple, let's say it is worth 4 units all the time, so the added EV
> is .54
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