"Reno Master" <RenoMaster2003@hotmail.com> wrote in message news:<mW1_a.3263$Nf3.1827@newsread4.news.pas.earthlink.net>...
> "Frequent_Flyer" wrote:
> > One of the most unusal strategies is that if you have
> > A-10 and the dealer shows a 6, it would be in your
> > best interest to double down on your 11 since 21 on
> > two cards pays no more than 21 on 3 or more cards.
>
> That doesn't follow. You have to compare the EVs when standing and when
> doubling and choose the action which yields the larger EV. Someone can run
> the numbers; but I'd be surprised if doubling was better than standing as 21
> is unbeatable.
>
> Reno Master
> http://profiles.yahoo.com/Master21VP
I am also skeptical about doubling down a soft 21 vs. a 6 (without
card-counting, of course) The EV for any 11 vs. 6 double is around
+.67 units (varies slightly with number of decks etc.) Your EV for
standing would be much closer to +1, since you only subtract the small
chance of the dealer tying you.
As for the overal EV of the game, do you know how many decks there are
and whether the dealer hits soft 17? Here are some figures (from
wizard of odds) about some of the rule variations you mentioned (these
apply to 8D game).
European No-Hole: -.11%
Early Surrender: +.63%
Natural is just like 21: yikes! something like -2.5% (losing an extra
half unit roughly 5 percent of the time)
The additional rules don't overcome the no Blackjack rule, so the game
is overall worse than regular BJ. To figure them out exactly you need
a little more info, such as:
-Are they like side bets- do you still play out the hand and win or
lose your original wager?
-If you get 3 of a kind and then hit again, do you still get the
bonus?
-Does a straight flush require 5 cards?
However, roughly speaking, the chances of getting 3 of a kind on the
first 3 cards are anywhere from 1 in 180 (with 8 decks) to 1 in 400
(with 1 deck). I'm guessing this will add between .5% and 1.2% to the
EV of the game, depending on number of decks. (I'm using very rough
estimates. I'm not adding a full 3 units per 180 (to 400) hands played
because there are a number of starting hands where you won't get a 3rd
card, such as pairs of 10-value cards)
If it is indeed a 5-card straight flush, then that adds practically
nothing to the EV of the game, because the chances are 1 in many
thousands of getting it.
-M
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