Path: news.nzbot.com!not-for-mail
From: selmckenzie@yahoo.com
Newsgroups: alt.gambling
Subject: SelMcKenzie betting systems
Date: 24 Apr 2006 01:12:49 -0700
Organization: http://groups.google.com
Lines: 438
Message-ID: <1145866369.608410.263050@g10g2000cwb.googlegroups.com>
NNTP-Posting-Host: 172.208.224.189
Mime-Version: 1.0
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1"
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
X-Trace: posting.google.com 1145866375 14308 127.0.0.1 (24 Apr 2006 08:12:55 GMT)
X-Complaints-To: groups-abuse@google.com
NNTP-Posting-Date: Mon, 24 Apr 2006 08:12:55 +0000 (UTC)
User-Agent: G2/0.2
X-HTTP-UserAgent: Mozilla/5.0 (Windows; U; Windows NT 5.1; de; rv:1.8.0.1) Gecko/20060111 Firefox/1.5.0.1,gzip(gfe),gzip(gfe)
Complaints-To: groups-abuse@google.com
Injection-Info: g10g2000cwb.googlegroups.com; posting-host=172.208.224.189;
posting-account=fxVZQA0AAADoUjqdP1JXiDEC8bLkEu-s
Xref: news.nzbot.com alt.gambling:1820
SelMcKenzie betting systems for NBA, MLB and NHL
All betting systems includet free systemsoftware
Free download
www.Gambling-Television.com
www.Casino-Germany.de
NBA - Basketball Betting Strategy
Basketball betting is the most difficult because so many games are
decided in the final two minutes. A team could be comfortably in the
lead and covering the spread but then end up failing to cover because
the opponent makes a few prayer 3-pointers in the waning seconds.
Yep, basketball betting can definitely get your blood pressure soaring.
But before you swear off basketball betting, there is hope. One
advantage basketball has over football is that one big fluke play
rarely changes the outcome of the entire game. You can handicap a game
correctly in football only to see an interception or fumble destroy all
your hard work.
The key to winning at basketball betting is all about money management.
You see, going into the basketball season, the winning percentage is
going to be lower than in football and baseball. In order to be
profitable you have to maximize wins and minimize losses, when
basketball betting. Here's how to do it.
The basketball betting system is built around a 3 star rating system.
Let's consider a normal wager to be a 3-star bet, a strong wager to be
a 4-star bet, and a mediocre wager to be a 2-star bet.
On a normal wager, you bet 3% of your total bankroll.
On a strong wager, you bet 4% of your total bankroll.
On a mediocre wager, just don't bet. Why wastes risk your money on a
weak bet?
It's real easy. 3 stars = 3%. 4 stars = 4%. 2 stars = No Action. So if
you had $1200 in your account here's how you would bet:
Normal - 3 stars = $36
Strong - 4 stars = $48
Mediocre - 2 stars = No Action
What you are trying to do is capitalize on the strong plays that you
are confident in while minimizing any losses that may come from games
you are less confident in.
Many times you will be basketball betting on seven, eight, nine games
at one time. When this happens, always make sure you never have more
than 30% of your total bankroll at risk.
The reasons preferred to use this style of basketball betting rather
than the other two sports is the fact that (1) basketball games are
played seven days a week and (2) offer a point spread rather than a
money line as in baseball. Additionally, it is much easier to determine
before the season starts in football how many total bets you will make
during the year. In basketball, it is much more difficult to come up
with such an estimate because games are played daily.
NBA Basketball Betting Strategy
1. Get to know your NBA team
Study your teams, learn their strengths and weaknesses, know their home
and road records, and evaluate them objectively. Pay attention to
changes in the quality of a team from one season to the next as players
get older and changes occur in personnel and coaching staffs. Salary
caps and free agency make it more difficult for teams to stay at the
top for long periods, so major improvement or decline from season to
season is commonplace in professional sports.
2. Value betting - find low risk high reward action
Successful basketball gambling requires getting value on your bets ...
basically this means getting better than the "true" odds on your team.
For instance, if your objective prediction for a game suggests that the
Lakers should be receiving 5 points but are in fact receiving 8, then
this is a value-betting proposition. In this case, the risk to reward
is very much in your favor, making the Lakers a strong play.
3. Bet against public opinion
Certain teams always have a strong public following. For years, the
Chicago Bulls were on such team, having captured the public's
admiration during the Jordan years. High-value bets can often be found
by betting against these teams because the oddsmakers adjust the line
to reflect the expected amount of public money ... thus, the underdog
is often listed with better odds or a larger pointspread than they
realistically deserve.
4. Stay abreast of injuries
Watch the injuries, but don't overreact to them. Judge the importance
of an injured player and the quality of his back up. Remember that
second-string players are often highly qualified and are especially
motivated when replacing a starter, so it often pays to bet on a team
missing its best player. The public normally overreacts to injuries so
you may find good value in this situation. However, beware of
situations where there is more than one injured stud or there is an
injury to the team's captain or inspirational leader.
5. Bet on motivated teams
Sometimes a team doesn't play up to its potential and, at other times,
may play well above what is indicated by their overall record -
especially in critical games. Determine how important a game is to a
team. If the team has already clinched a playoff spot, they may be more
focused on the post-season than the present game. Conversely, a team
facing a must-win situation to make the playoffs may be highly
motivated. A team out to revenge a defeat earlier in the season may
also be very motivated.
6. Bet with your head, not your heart
Make an honest assessment of a team's chances, not one based on
emotions. Don't bet on a team simply because it's your favorite without
considering the real odds. Be selective and remember that you will only
find value betting situations in a small number of games. Betting the
entire NBA schedule every week is a risky proposition at best.
7. Don't chase your losses
When you do run into the inevitable losing streak, don't panic and make
the common mistake of betting larger amounts in an attempt to recoup
your losses. Instead, examine your handicapping methods and reduce your
betting amounts until you start winning again. Remember - chasing your
losses is the single biggest mistake a gambler can make. Once you start
winning again, increase your bets slightly, but don't go overboard -
unfortunately, like losing streaks, winning streaks also come to an
end.
8. Don't bet just for the sake of betting
There is no shame in passing up a bet. Remember that there are sports
betting opportunities almost every day of the year. Don't bet simply
for the sake of gambling - be patient and wait for good value betting
opportunities.
9. Practice smart money management
Good money management is just as important as picking winners. Increase
your betting amount only when showing an overall profit and reduce your
betting amount when you are losing. Try to set a maximum percentage of
your betting capital that will be placed on any one bet in order to
minimize your exposure ... many professional handicappers suggest that
no more than five percent of your wagering capital be at risk on any
one bet, no matter how strongly you feel about the game.
10. Keep accurate records
Accurate records of your wagering activity are essential for increasing
your winning percentage. For example, do you tend to bet your home team
or your favorite team more than you should? What are the current trends
- are more underdogs winning early in the season? By maintaining
records of statistics as well as your betting history will help you to
avoid destructive wagering patterns and, at the same time will enable
you to spot trends that may give you an edge.
====================
MLB - Baseball Betting Strategy
The difference between baseball betting and gambling on basketball and
football is in the giving or taking of points, as opposed to needing to
lay a lot of money in baseball on heavy favorites.
The game of baseball has changed dramatically over the past few years.
Its been witnessed to an offensive explosion, the likes of which have
never been seen in the 120-year history of Major League Baseball.
Scoring is skyrocketing due to the dilution of pitching talent caused
by expansion and the new hotbox ballparks being built around the
country.
With scoring way up and bullpens so bad baseball betting has become
much more difficult. In the good old days (actually just few years
ago), all you had to do was study the starting pitching match-ups and
you could do pretty good for yourself in baseball betting.
That's all changed now. Today, you CANNOT win consistently in betting
baseball by just focusing on the starting pitchers. There is absolutely
nothing more frustrating than handicapping a game correctly only to see
the bullpen blow it in the late innings.
Many handicappers are turning to what is called a "progression" style
of baseball betting to win on straight baseball wagers. The theory is
centralized around the three game series major league teams play
against each other throughout the season. Here's the way it works:
in the three game series.
All you need to them to do is win one game and you're profitable! That
means even if you win only 33% of the time you're still winning money
because you're playing underdogs.
It's impossible to handicap all the crazy, unpredictable things that
are going to happen in a baseball game, but chances are the ball will
bounce your way at least once over a 3 game period.
Here's another baseball betting secret: In the past few years betting
the totals of MLB games analyzing the HOME PLATE UMPIRE!!! But this is
an entirely different topic.
MLB Baseball Gambling Strategies
Look for value in the underdog
The best baseball teams lose at least sixty games a year and the worst
teams win close to that same number. The rest of the league falls
somewhere in between. Consider that the more favorites you bet, the
higher the percentage of wins you'll need to break even. For example,
if your average bet is a -150 favorite you'll need to hit 60% winners
just to break even. At -170, that number increases to 63% and so on.
Now consider the opposite. If your average bet is a +120 underdog, your
break-even percentage drops to approximately 45.5%. At +140, it's down
to just over 42% and the higher you go the lower the breakeven
percentage. Keeping in mind that even the poorest baseball teams seldom
win fewer than 37% of their games, it is apparent that looking for
opportunities to bet on underdogs is essential to profitable baseball
wagering.
Set a limit for betting on favorites
While most successful baseball bettors look to play underdogs first,
favorites can frequently present good value as well. Often times, one
will find a top team playing on the road as a minor favorite or other
situations will present themselves where small favorites are a good
play. To bet baseball successfully, you should implement a strict limit
on how much you'll lay on a favorite, say -150 or lower. Once you
establish your "cut off" for wagering favorites, never wager more
than that, regardless of the circumstance or situation.
Don't place too much stock in starting pitchers
Too many sports handicappers place too much emphasis on the starting
pitcher. It's understandable, of course, since the bookmakers list the
starting pitcher when setting the line for each game. If you pay any
attention to baseball, however, you'll know that the quality of
starting pitching has reached a state of equality, if not mediocrity.
Sure, there are a small number of elite pitchers, but all others are a
cut below these few. Since you'll never get these guys anywhere near
your favorite cut off point, don't worry about them.
Baseball is a game of streaks, and nowhere is that more evident than in
pitching. If a starter is demonstrating particularly good or
particularly bad recent form, it might not be compensated for in the
line and there may be value in playing on (or against) the starter in
question. Overall, however, starting pitching receives way too much
emphasis when evaluating baseball from a wagering standpoint.
Bettors need to understand that baseball is a game of streaks
This is no secret, of course, but it is something to be conscious of
when betting on baseball. No matter what else you find relevant about a
game, you should think twice about betting against a team that has won
three or more games in a row or on a team that has lost three or more
games in a row. This may sound superstitious, but it's a valuable rule
to follow. You'll always be better off in the long run by not going
against a winning or losing streak the majority of the time.
Home field advantage just doesn't matter
Of all major sports, there may be less advantage to playing at home in
baseball than in any other. This is especially true during the long
regular season. Granted there are teams that do better in certain
ballparks than others, but this is more a function of the design of the
ballpark and the personnel of the team than any home field advantage.
Some parks are clearly "pitcher's parks" or "hitter's parks",
but it works both ways - the opposing pitchers and hitters often have
the same advantage or disadvantage as the home team's players.
Furthermore, bad teams are frequently overvalued at home, which results
in good value on the visitor. Over the course of season, most teams
will probably do better at home than on the road but the higher prices
you'll have to pay will negate this fact. More often than not, "home
field advantage" shouldn't be a consideration in handicapping a game.
Here are a few strategies that you should follow if you are going to be
a serious player:
1. When betting on Major League baseball, it is highly recommended that
you avoid playing on a favorite with a line of -170 or more, and never
lay -150 or more on a road team, no matter who's pitching. If you
continuously played such favorites at -150, you would have to win more
than 60% of your bets just to break even! you play the underdog side
of a 1.50/1.00 line when you feel the team has a decent chance to win.
These plays at the +150 price need only win 40% of the time to be
profitable. Look for those "live" dogs!
2. Baseball is also known as a game of streaks - for the gambler as
well as the team. Handicapper Russ Culver uses a system in which he
capitalizes on his own hot streaks, and often can put himself on the
plus side for the season with a couple of 8 or 9-day binges. Culver
will bet the same amount on all of his games until he has 3 consecutive
winning days, then on the fourth day he will up his bets by 50 percent.
If he wins on that day, he will stay at the same level; but if day 5 is
a winning one, he increases his wagers another 50 percent. This pattern
is followed until the inevitable losing day rolls around. Then he
reverts to his customary wager. Culver rationalizes this strategy by
concluding that when the losing day finally arrives, it will only cost
him the previous two days' profits, thus guaranteeing a solid profit
for the period. If a super hot streak of winning days can reach
double-digits, he's looking at a real bankroll builder.
3. Other handicappers like to ride the wave with a particular hot team.
They stipulate a strategy that directs a bet on any team that has won
three straight games, and then to stay on them until they lose. The
rationale here is that once a team gets hot, they often stay hot.
Picture the San Diego Padres during the hot run they enjoyed last
summer - putting their 13-game streak into this formula would have
resulted in a 10-1 record and a nice payday. Of course, this strategy
might force you to play some heavy favorites , but sometimes you just
have to keep your fingers crossed and hope the big upset doesn't occur.
MLB - Betting The Run Line In Major League Baseball
Overview of Run Line betting
Unlike football and basketball in which pointspreads are used to
determine the winners and losers of wagers, baseball has historically
been a sport in which bettors merely wager on which team will win the
game. As the perceived difference between two competing teams grows,
money line odds are used to 'equalize' the chances of a bettor showing
a profit over the long run. Two evenly matched teams will be involved
in a 'pick em' game.
In Sports Books that feature a "ten cents line" you would lay $105 to
win $100 on the team you think will win the game. A team that is more
moderately favored might be priced as a -140 favorite in which case you
would wager $140 to win $100. If you bet on the opponent, the Underdog,
you would wager $100 to win $130. As the price of the favorite rises,
the 'spread' between the favorite and underdog prices also increases.
For example, a -200 Favorite often returns +180 on the Underdog.
Run Line wagering attempts to introduce the pointspread element found
in basketball and football wagering to a very limited degree. The Run
Line wager involves the laying or taking of one and a half runs with a
corresponding adjustment in the price. When you wager on a Favorite and
lay the run and half you are wagering that the Favorite will win by two
runs or more. A wager on the Underdog at plus a run and a half means
that you are wagering on the Underdog to either win the game straight
up or lose the game by exactly one run. Obviously you do not have tie
games in baseball.
The price adjustments in run line wagering depend upon whether the
favored team is at home or on the road. A larger adjustment occurs for
Home Favorites since they will often only get at bats in 8 innings if
they have the lead after the visiting team hits in the ninth. If the
home team trails or is tied in the middle of the ninth inning the odds
that they will win the game by more than one run are greatly reduced
since it would take a multiple run home run to win by at least two runs
since the game would normally end after the go ahead run crosses home
plate in the event of any run producing event other than a home run.
The road team will ALWAYS bat in the top of the ninth inning regardless
of the score so it is easier for the road team to win by more than a
run in tight ballgames. In the ninth inning and in extra innings there
is no limit on the number of runs the road team can score they
continue to bat until there are three outs.
A typical example of how the price adjustment works is as follows. A
Home Favorite of - 125 often is transformed into an Underdog of roughly
+ 145 when laying the run and a half, a spread of 70 cents. The
corresponding Road Underdog, priced at + 115 straight, is often a
Favorite of - 165 when getting the plus run and a half, a spread of 80
cents. If the roles were reversed, a Road Favorite of - 125 would be
priced at + 120 when laying the run and a half, a spread of just 45
cents. The corresponding Home Underdog, priced straight at + 115, would
be a Favorite of about - 140 when taking the run and a half, a spread
of 55 cents.
It is our contention that playing the Run Line and converting a
Favorite into an Underdog makes great sense but doing the reverse,
taking the run and half with the underdog, is not efficient. Consider
the following
The ONLY way you are hurt when you lay the run and a half and convert a
Favorite into an Underdog is when that Favorite WINS BY EXACTLY ONE
RUN! In all other situations you are benefitted. When the Favorite wins
by 2 runs or more, thereby covering the Run Line, you WIN MORE than if
you just played the game straight. You win as if you had played on an
Underdog (+ 145 vs. + 100 in the Home Favorite example above or + 120
vs. + 100 in the Road Favorite example).
If that Favorite should lose the game you would LOSE LESS than by
playing straight (- 100 vs. - 125 in the case of our Home and Road
Favorites in our above example). Only when the Favorite wins by exactly
one run are you hurt by playing the run line. In such an instance the
straight bettor wins while the bettor who laid the run and a half
loses.
Conversely, the ONLY way you are helped by taking the runs and a half
is when your team LOSES BY EXACTLY ONE RUN. In all other situations
straight plays on Underdogs are more beneficial. When your Underdog
loses, as they are expected to do, you LOSE MORE by taking the run and
a half (-$165 in the case of our Road Underdog above or - $120 in the
case of our Home Underdog) than by playing the team straight (lose just
$100). When that team pulls the upset and wins you WIN LESS by taking
the run and a half since you would normally be getting, for example, +
$115 on a straight wager but are getting just + $100 when taking the
run and a half. When the team loses by exactly 1 run the straight
bettor loses while the bettor who played the plus a run and a half
wins.
The central questions to be asked and answered are "How often do
Favorites win by exactly 1 Run?" and "How often do Favorites win by 2
Runs or more"?
Percentage of games which produce the following Result . . . . HOME
FAVORITES ROAD FAVORITES
Win by 2 Runs or More 39.1 % 43.6 %
Win by Exactly 1 Run 18.4 % 11.6 %
Lose by Exactly 1 Run 11.0 % 16.4 %
Lose by 2 Runs or More 31.5 % 28.5 %
Note that we have split the losses into groups of exactly 1 run and
more than 1 run. There really is no need for this distinction since a
loss is a loss when it comes to playing the Favorite. Only the 1 Run
win has significance. What we want to show is that although between 28%
and 30% of all games are decided by 1 run, ONLY those in which the
FAVORITE WINS BY 1 RUN have an impact of the result of betting the Run
Line!
=========================
=========
NHL - Hockey Betting Strategy
Hockey is the most complicated of the major sports to wager on. Betting
on hockey also has the lot variables to consider. You must also
consider the additional complication of frequent ties when betting on
hockey. A puck and a money line are the two options used by casinos
when they accept betting on hockey. The books generally use the money
line. For example, the betting on hockey line "Buffalo minus 1/2, minus
$1.65 over Quebec" would translate into Buffalo being the favorite
giving 1/2 goal and a player would need to bet $165 to win $100. If a
player wanted Quebec the line would be "plus 1/2 plus $1.45," and if
they bet $100 they would get 1/2 goal and win $145 (plus the return of
the original $100). The available difference in the amount of goals and
money in hockey is quite diverse and different from casino to casino
which is yet another boon to the shopping betting on hockey wagers. The
other choice when betting on hockey is the puck line.
In the above example using the puck line, the betting on hockey line on
Buffalo would be "minus 1 1/2, even." To back Buffalo you must give up
1 1/2 goals and the wager is even money, meaning you risk $100 to win
$100. To play Quebec the line would read "plus 1 1/2 goals, even"
meaning that you would receive 1 1/2 goals in backing Quebec while
risking even money ($100 to win $100). Betting on hockey has a built in
danger for the player to be aware of: an empty net goal at the game's
end can drastically altering the outcome on any type of 1/2-goal, 1-
goal, 1 1/2-goal, or 2-goal wager.
Hockey Betting Strategies
When betting on hockey the Sports bettor must understand that it is
different from betting on any other sport. Like baseball, it is a long
season. However, it differs from baseball in that is a much more
physical sport. Day in and day out hockey players take more punishment
than athletes in any other sport. It is nearly impossible for a player
to give 100% for 82 games. Hockey can be the easiest sport to win if
you follow a few easy guidelines.
1. Limit your betting on hockey before February 1st
Betting on hockey before January 1st is like flipping a coin. The
stronger teams rarely show much motivation until after the holidays.
Most of the contenders will spend the first couple of months 'working
the kinks out', then turn it on for the playoff stretch. The weaker
teams tend to get fired up to play the contenders all season. You'll
find that the weaker teams are more likely to ambush a contender when
they are playing an unmotivated team.
2. Look for the 4 to 6 "Money teams"
In hockey there are usually four to six teams you can count on to win
more than 80% of the time after February 1st. These are the "money
teams". Play these teams night in and night out, and you will find
consistent growth in your account. Avoid betting on these teams when
they are playing one of the other money teams. There will be teams that
seem to come from out of nowhere the first part of the year and run up
a good won-loss record. If this team has not made key acquisitions in
the off season and you find yourself asking, "where did they come
from", chances are they will not be a top seed by seasons end. There is
one of these teams every year. Be smart; do not let them pull you in.
3. Avoid betting against the pucks
In hockey, there is a money line and a puck line. Sometimes you can get
the money line lower by giving up pucks like runs in baseball. Avoid
betting against the pucks. Hockey, unlike baseball and basketball, does
not play until there is a winner. Unless it is a playoff game, there is
a five minute overtime period and the game is over. There are too many
tie games and one puck games in hockey. That 1/2 puck may look good,
but could come back to haunt you more times than it is worth. If a game
ends up in a tie and you have the money line it is a push. Unlike
baseball, don't let the money line scare you. If it is into the second
half of the season you will win enough to cover the occasional loss.
4. Bet the same amount on every game
Avoid trying to pick out which game is best, then betting more on that
game. If you win the rest of your picks, then lose the one game you
loaded up on, you are likely to end up behind on the day. If you bet 4
games, at $100 each and go 3-1, you will have walked away on the
positive side.
5. Home Ice is less important than Team Strength
A strong team is going to beat a weak team the majority of the time no
matter where the game is held. Avoid trying to get a value bet because
of home ice. It won't matter if you can win $270 on a $100 wager if you
lose the game. There are rarely high percentage value bets in hockey.
6. Avoid betting single playoff games
There are a few hockey series match ups that are good bets, but don't
try to pick which team will win which particular games in a series.
You'll find greater success if you will pick your series winner prior
to the start of the series, and then bet them every game until the
series ends. This strategy should put you in a position to take
advantage of any percentage edge you are likely to have by correctly
picking the series winner.
|
|